The French Government's growth forecasts are, on average, slightly optimistic compared to those of the Consensus Forecasts, and even more so compared to their outcome. Over the period 2004-2023, excluding the years 2009, 2020 and 2021, the average difference between the Government's forecasts and those of the Consensus Forecasts is 0.20 point. The average difference between the Government's forecasts and actual growth is 0.40 point. This positive difference is statistically significant, indicating an optimistic bias of the French Government's growth forecasts.
The accuracy of the Government's forecasts has however improved since the creation of the HCFP and the initial budget bill 2014, and is now on a par with the Consensus Forecasts for the 2014-2023 period. Besides the Government’s inflation and GDP deflator forecasts are on average very close to their outcome.
With the exception of the financial and health crises in 2009, 2020 and 2021, Government forecasts for both revenue and expenditure-to-GDP ratios are on average slightly lower than observed ratios and the Government's forecasts for the general government balance are thus on average at the level of the observed balance, i.e. -3.8 points of GDP. However, the forecasts of the public debt-to-GDP ratio are optimistic compared to their outcome.